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World of Westchase

May 2008

In 2004, Bridges resident Tom Brennan, then a Pinellas firefighter, spent a week in the Florida panhandle after Hurricane Ivan made landfall. He returned with a clear idea of how a major storm could affect Westchase.

It’s early September of 2007. Labor Day looms. The heat is oppressive and the Gulf of Mexico, just southwest of Florida, is churning with a Category 5 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty lies directly over Tampa Bay. Forty-eight hours out, local officials call for mandatory evacuations of Zones A through E, covering all of Westchase.

But a hurricane hasn’t hit Tampa Bay directly since 1921. As your nervous neighbors slap up plywood and pull out of their driveways, you stand in yours, waving goodbye, shaking your head at them. You’re going to “ride it out” with your young family, certain it will miss Tampa once again.

Hours later, a knock at the door. You open it to Hillsborough Sheriff’s deputy, who inquires if you will be evacuating. You smile and say, “No.”

“Do me a favor then,” he says. “Take an indelible marker, write your name and a contact number for next of kin on your chest. It will make body identification easier.”

You shut the door. He’s just trying to scare you. Isn’t he?

Think again. If you’re wrong, do you really know how a hurricane will affect your Westchase home?

To do so, you first need to understand that the storm surge caused by a hurricane is the biggest killer. A hurricane’s low atmospheric pressure creates a dome of water at its center, further intensified by howling winds rotating around the hurricane’s eye. As the storm approaches land, this wall of water pushes ashore.

Is Westchase at a high enough elevation to protect it? Is it far enough inland to spare its homes?

The worst storm surge recorded in the U.S. was the 24-foot high dome of water that Hurricane Camille pushed ashore in 1969. The storm surge covered the coastal area of the gulf for more than 150 miles. If Camille came up the mouth of Tampa Bay in 2007, all of Westchase would be underwater.

The size of a hurricane’s storm surge is determined by many factors: the size and strength of the storm, how fast the storm is moving, the timing of the tides at landfall, the direction of the storm’s movement and the depth of the ocean or bay floor. Tampa Bay is very shallow, which would produce a high storm surge. Another factor is the height of the shoreline. As we all know, we live in a very flat area with little elevation change.

What are the two areas most vulnerable to storm surge in hurricane alley? The first is New Orleans, which experienced terrible destruction just two years ago. The second area is the west coast of Florida between Tampa Bay and the Everglades. According to Brian Jarvinen of the National Weather Service, the west coast of Florida will handle a Category 1 storm coming from the gulf. A Category 2 storm will present problems. A storm as low as a Category 3, however, could spell disaster.

Why is the storm surge a serious threat to Westchase? Westchase is less than two miles from Tampa Bay. A small waterway, Double Branch Creek, runs along the west side of Westchase through Twin Branch Acres. The creek backs up to Bennington and Glenfield before passing under Linebaugh Avenue west of the McDonald’s. It continues northward into The Eagles. Double Branch Creek empties into Tampa Bay at Upper Tampa Bay Park.

This creek will show the beginnings of any storm surge. This is why Twin Branch Acres lies in evacuation zones A and B. Interestingly enough, the county’s evacuation map for this year has Woodbay, Wycliff, Bennington, Glenfield and Keswick Forest  in evacuation zone C, a two zone upgrade from previous years, despite their proximity to the creek. As earlier stated, Jarvinen believes that a Category 1 hurricane will be handled fine in this area. However, residents living in these neighborhoods may experience some storm surge flooding regardless of the county’s predictions. On the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale a storm surge of four to five feet can be expected for a Category 1 storm. In addition to the storm surge flooding, the potential for heavy rains may also cause problems with flooding in these low areas.

Along with the storm surge, the winds will range from 74-95 mph. These winds should produce no serious structural damage to Westchase homes. While some minor damage may occur to some roofs and windows due to flying or falling debris, damage will primarily occur to mobile homes, shrubbery and trees.

Yet Category 1 hurricanes do pose dangers. Hurricane Gaston, a Category 1 hurricane in 2004, dropped over 15 inches of rain in some urban areas of South Carolina. How will our roads and waterways handle the downpour of rain? Flash floods from Hurricane Gaston led to five fatalities from motorists attempting to drive through flooded roadways.

What to do if Westchase faces a Category 1 storm? My recommendation is for residents living in evacuation zone B, including southern parts of Woodbay, to consider staying with friends living in evacuation zones C or higher as a precaution.

A Category 2 storm will produce winds of 96-110 mph, which will cause roof, door and window damage. Considerable damage will occur to vegetation and mobile homes. The storm surge will likely be six to eight feet. The houses in evacuation zone A will more than likely experience storm surge flooding. Those living in evacuation zone B, including parts of Woodbay and the western part of Glencliff, may experience storm surge flooding as well. As much as 12 inches of rain fell when Category 2 Hurricane Isabel hit North Carolina in 2003. Considerable storm surge damage also occurred from Isabel. All residents in evacuation A and B and those living in proximity to those boundaries should therefore evacuate. Consider going to an area in evacuation zone D or higher.

A Category 3 storm would create a storm surge of nine to twelve feet. Those living in evacuation zone A, B and C will experience storm surge flooding – meaning water may be in most Westchase homes south and west of Greencrest in The Greens, including Radcliffe and The Shires. Winds will range from 111-130 mph. These winds will cause structural damage to small residences and utility buildings, with a minor amount of wall failures. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Flooding near the coast will destroy small structures and larger structures will be damaged by floating debris. Significant numbers of houses in Westchase will therefore be damaged.

Hurricane Ivan, a very strong Category 3 storm, slammed into the panhandle of Florida in 2004. Its storm surge was estimated at 10-15 feet. A quarter-mile of the Interstate 10 bridge spanning the Blackwater River near Pensacola collapsed into the bay. If a Category 3 or higher storm is heading toward Tampa, my family and I, who live in evacuation zone D in The Bridges, will be heading out of town to our designated “safe house” north and east of the Bay area.

With a Category 4 or 5 heading our way, all of Westchase should evacuate. In fact, areas up to 10 miles from the coast may be required to evacuate. If Tampa is struck by such a storm, our community as we know it will be drastically changed. Trees will be blown down or uprooted everywhere. Houses throughout the community will sustain severe damage. If your house northeast of the intersection of Linebaugh Avenue and Gretna Green Drive happens to survive the storm surge, more than likely its roof will be damaged, requiring the use of tarps to keep out future rainwater. Many houses will be outright destroyed by the storm surge, likely as high as 13 feet. While it is hard to imagine that amount of water moving inland, it is shocking to realize that the first floors of Westchase’s southwestern-most homes will be inundated well into their second floors by such a surge.

To prepare for the height of this year’s storm season, my recommendation is to plan for a worse scenario than predicted. Consider Category 2 Hurricane Charlie in 2004. The Tampa Bay area was the predicted point of landfall. The storm, however, not only suddenly changed course and hit Southwest Florida, it intensified to a Category 4 storm with very short notice. I always therefore plan for the storm to intensify by at least one predicted category level and I base my plan of action on this.

Make sure you are ready for hurricane season. The Web site www.floridadisaster.org will help you in creating a family disaster plan. Consult the evacuation map on pages 108-109 to determine your new evacuation zone.

If you are interested in viewing videos of hurricanes and the power of these storms, go to the National Geographic Web site.

Click here to view your evacuation zone in Westchase. Please plan ahead to keep your families safe.
 

Hurricane Links

National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center’s site has everything you ever wanted to know about hurricanes. It posts expected storm trajectories and updates that are used by all local weather forecasters. It’s updated at 5 a.m., 11 a.m., 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. daily. Its graphics are impressive and downloaded by millions.

Weather Underground

Click on the Weather Underground's links to computer models to view tracks of different computer models cited by the Hurricane Center's site. Click on the links to Blogs on this page and you’ll find Jeff Masters’ fascinating, in-depth analysis of storm information and forecasting. A word of warning: once you read it, you’ll get hooked and quickly become your neighborhood’s Hurricane Supergeek.

Florida Division of Emergency Management

The Florida Division of Emergency Management offers a helpful site to aid you in the development of a hurricane plan.

Hurricane Evacuation Assessment Tool

The county’s Hurricane Evacuation Assessment Tool allows you to plug in your street address to determine your specific evacuation zone. For the first time, this county site also provides a detailed evacuation zone map that will allow you to make sense of boundary zones on a house by house basis.

St. Petersburg Times’ Online Hurricane Guide

St. Petersburg Times’ Online Hurricane Guide has useful preparation information. Its link “Common Questions and Answers” includes information on dealing with your pets before the storms start whirling.

Tampa Tribune/TBO’s Online Hurricane Guide

The Tampa Tribune/TBO’s Online Hurricane Guide has useful FAQs covering before, during and after the storm.

Predictions, Predictions: Whom Can You Trust?
By Tom Brennan, Resident of The Bridges

As another hurricane season arrives, the experts have provided us with their tropical storm predictions for this year. Which expert do you trust most: the National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), Dr. Gray from Colorado State University, or The Weather Research Center?

Over the past six years one expert has gotten it right each year – Ralph from Ralph's Tropical Weather. What’s unique about Ralph is he only makes predictions for a hurricane landfall in Florida. Unlike Dr. Gray, who likes to adjust his prediction twice during the hurricane season, Ralph remains steadfast with his prediction.

How accurate has NOAA been over the previous six hurricanes seasons? You decide. In 2006, NOAA predicted 13-16 named storms; there were 10. In the very active year 2005, which produced 28 named storms, NOAA predicted 12-15. In 2004, 15 named storms formed; NOAA got it right by predicting 12-15 names storms. In 2003, NOAA missed it by one. For 2002 they were correct with their predictions, but missed it again in 2001.

The Weather Research Center over the same period of time has never correctly predicted tropical storm activity. Their predictions have been off by as many as 17 storms.
As for Dr. Gray, he makes a prediction at the beginning of the hurricane season then revises it twice during the season. Even with his revisions, he doesn’t always get it right.

This leads me to Ralph. Last year he predicted Florida would be safe from hurricanes; he was correct. In 2005, his prediction was for a storm landfall in Florida; again he was correct. He was correct for 2004, 2003, 2002 and 2001 as well. What scientific method does he rely upon? It’s simple. If his home in Homestead, Florida receives more than one inch of rain in the month of December, then the following hurricane season will produce a hurricane that makes a Florida landfall.

Ralph’s prediction for 2007? Well, he received more than an inch of rain in December 2006, so he anticipates a hurricane landfall in Florida.

I hope Ralph is finally wrong.